Hayden Winks Fantasy Analyst Thu, November 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC · 18 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be an RB column , a WR column and this combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.
It's impossible to get every ranking thoroughly early in the week, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available .
Burrow has been dealing as the season-long QB2 (26.2 PPG), generating +0.23 EPA per dropback (QB5). He is lighting up box scores through the air, leading the league in passing yards per game (302) and passing touchdowns per game (2.9). Cincinnati is leaning all the way into his arm, operating with a league-high 66% neutral pass rate (first).
That aggressive approach meets an Atlanta defense allowing 16.3 half PPR points per game to quarterbacks (23rd), where recent signal-callers like Tyler Huntley (24.0 points) and Caleb Williams (16.5 points) have put up functional days. The Bengals head in as 3-point road favorites with an implied team total of 27.25 points (sixth).
Allen's 28.2 fantasy points per game is currently ahead of the all-time fantasy record at QB (Lamar Jackson, 2024). He's done so without DJ Moore for half of the season. Moore was used properly last week with unlimited run-away routes, and then Dalton Kincaid found space downfield in multi-TE sets. It's a great formula.
The Vikings have been by far the best fantasy QB defense, however, allowing just 10.4 fantasy points per game. That's insane. Truly. They haven't faced an elite dual-threat QB this season, though.
Allen will be blitzed at a career-high rate, most likely. He's the QB5 in EPA per dropback against the blitz (+0.07), but that is far lower than on non-blitzes (+0.21, QB1). When blitzed, Allen has a 3.4% scramble rate compared to a 9% scramble rate when not blitzed. It's possible the Bills run a bit more often because of the pressure, as opposing offenses to Minnesota only pass 45% of the time in neutral situations (31st).
Buffalo enters as 3.5-point road favorites carrying an implied team total of 25.0 points (11th). It would make sense for Allen's fantasy output to take a hit here.
We'll see if Mike Evans (Achilles) can return, but it doesn't sound like Deebo Samuel Sr. will be back.
Purdy has been surgical as fantasy's QB4 (21.7 PPG), leading all qualified quarterbacks with +0.31 EPA per dropback (QB1). Over his last four starts against quality opponents, his efficiency has cooled to +0.03 EPA per dropback (16th) while averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game. His Week 7 outing without his starting receivers was his worst game of the year (16.0).
He draws a dream matchup against a Raiders defense that's allowing the fourth-most half PPR points per game to QBs (21.8). Las Vegas sits at the top right of the intersection between success rate and explosive rate allowed on dropbacks alongside the worst defenses in the NFL. It's allowed 4 straight QBs to finish as top-12 QBs. The 49ers enter as 9.5-point home favorites with a slate-leading implied team total of 30.5 points (first).
The Goff outlier dud happened last week, finishing as the QB21 against the Vikings' chaotic defense. Despite that, Goff is the QB4 in EPA per dropback and pacing for 4,770 yards with 36 passing touchdowns. He's the QB6 in fantasy despite not having anything to show with his legs.
The Week 9 environment is pristine against a Miami defense allowing 20.8 half PPR points per game to QBs (sixth). Opposing quarterbacks have moved the ball against the Dolphins regularly, including recent outings from Joe Burrow (24.6 points), Geno Smith (23.5 points) and Drake Maye (22.4 points). Miami is struggling on play action and throws over the middle. That's the entire Lions offense. Detroit is listed as 7-point road favorites with a 28.75-point implied team total (third).
After a very slow start, Maye is the QB2 from Week 4 on, sandwiched between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. This past month, his +0.39 EPA per dropback leads the position. He's been the QB14 in EPA per dropback throughout the season, but timely scrambles and plenty of volume have made up for the efficiency decline. We'll see if A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry can suit up later, but Maye made it work with backups against the Dolphins last week (QB7).
He now faces a Packers defense that has kept QBs in check with a chaotic defensive style, surrendering just 14.9 half PPR points per game to the position (27th). Green Bay recently held Bryce Young to 12.4 points, Jared Goff to 18.0 and Dak Prescott to 15.0. The Patriots head into the matchup as 3-point home favorites with an implied team total of 25.25 points (10th).
Williams is simply way more accurate this year. He's the QB2 in completion percentage over expected when adjusting for his throw depth. He's middle of the pack in sack rate (7.6%). And he's the QB4 in interception rate. Williams is seeing it extremely well, despite already facing the Vikings, Seahawks, Patriots and the feisty Falcons defenses. He's the QB3 in EPA per dropback, and he'll start spiking fantasy outings once he's pushed by the opponent.
The Bucs defense will be another tough defense to beat. They're fifth-best against fantasy QBs, and from Week 3 on, they've been the best defense in EPA per play, allowing just 15.8 points per game. They slowed down Dak Prescott in Week 5, then completely shut down Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr. in the past two weeks. They have better pass-rushing depth and have enjoyed full breakouts from CBs Zyon McCollum and especially Jacob Parrish. Tampa Bay also wants to grind out the clock with a run game that is breaking my brain. Chicago returns home as 5.5-point home favorites sporting a 26.5-point implied team total (seventh).
It hasn't been the best Prescott season, and the Cowboys' run game has been so bad that they've lost some inexcusable games along the way. The good news is Prescott has healthy WR and OL units right now, and his defense looks as pathetic as usual. He's been the QB13 in fantasy points per game this year on just QB8 EPA per dropback. It's been much higher than that for long stretches, and I can see that coming back after a recent stretch of games against BAL, HOU, TB and GB. Prescott was the QB6 and QB11 in the last two games against softer opponents.
The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL, possibly the worst without DT DeForest Buckner. They were smoked by the Jaguars last week after firing their GM in late October. Dallas heads on the road as 6-point road favorites with a healthy implied team total of 28.5 points (fourth). There are truly no excuses here.
Jayden Daniels has been the QB15, QB3, QB7 and QB16 in his healthiest games. Since returning from an elbow dislocation, the Commanders have yet to call a designed run for him. He'll still scramble like a madman, but more of those are resulting in slides and running out of bounds early, too. This will hurt him on the margins, though he's still the QB1 in rushing yards per game (47.2).
The Rams present a fun matchup dynamic, ranking 21st in half PPR points allowed to opposing QBs (17.0 per game) but fourth in points allowed specifically to QB rushing. Opposing offenses facing Los Angeles also feature a 47% neutral pass rate, the third-lowest rate allowed in the NFL. Washington hosts this contest as 5.5-point home underdogs carrying a 21.0-point implied team total (23rd).
Mahomes was quite good last week considering the circumstances, finishing as the QB5 against a healthy Broncos defense. Across the year, Mahomes is the QB14 on QB12 EPA per dropback. He was slowed down by the Seahawks without Rashee Rice in Week 7, but the Chiefs have been one of the best offenses in the NFL when not facing a top-3 defense this year. Their weaknesses at LT and WR are hidden best against mediocre opponents.
Insert the Jets, who may not have their top-two defensive linemen here. The Jets just allowed top-5 fantasy outings from Kirk Cousins, Malik Willis and Drake Maye in their last three outings. It's obviously a great spot here. Kansas City enters as 9.5-point home favorites with a 28.75-point implied team total (third).
10. Trevor Lawrence (at BAL) - 18.8 proj. points
Lawrence is up to QB2 overall in EPA per dropback. He hasn't been pushed many times this year, so he's left fourth quarters without adding to his totals. He's only the QB16 in yards per game, leaving him with QB8 fantasy points per game. That's closer to his floor while everyone is healthy on offense. His ceiling is far higher when games are tighter.
That's the issue with the Thursday Night Game against third-string QB Joe Fagnano. The Ravens are 10-point dogs with a team total below 15 points. The Ravens defense is far more talented and far better coached than their current No. 15 ranking in fantasy points allowed to QBs, too. Nice field position and the occasional 1-on-1 loss downfield with Marlon Humphrey in coverage are enough to combat these minor risks for T-Law as a low-end QB1. The Jaguars are ninth in team total (24.75).
Love is playing the sport like nobody else. His absurd aggressiveness and arm talent are amazing to watch every week.
Love has turned into the QB9 on a per-game basis, with the second-most yards per game (281). His top three pass catchers are healthy, and they're starting to figure out the best starting OL and ways to hide them on the margins. He's scored multiple touchdowns in 7 of 8 starts. Even with Josh Jacobs in the fold, the Packers have maintained their pass-first identity. That's how it should be behind this OL.
His Week 9 draw is tougher on paper against a New England defense that ranks 22nd in half PPR points allowed to quarterbacks (16.6). The Packers head on the road as 3-point road underdogs with an implied team total of 22.25 points (17th). That's lower than normal.
The Dolphins are definitely better in November than in September. This is the youngest team in the NFL, and it's a new scheme with a new QB. The team is gelling, while also getting healthier at OL and WR. Willis has been fantasy's QB7 since Week 5 on QB14 EPA per dropback. Some of that is because of a Caleb Douglas sideline YAC TD, but him being in the lineup is helpful! Miami is still 30th in neutral pass rate (44%), but they'll be forced to pass here.
The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to QBs, and opposing offenses have the third-highest neutral pass rate allowed. Their run defense is simply better than their secondary. Detroit will miss star LB Jack Campbell over the middle (and I really hope things progress for him, beyond football), but they did get star S Brian Branch back recently. The Lions have given up the seventh-most rushing QB points this year, partially because of garbage time scrambles. Those count for us! Willis will try to continue this top-12 QB streak, after Kyler Murray (QB10), Jordan Love (QB12), Jacoby Brissett (QB7) and Bryce Young (QB7) have done just that this month. Miami carries a 21.75-point implied team total (18th) as 7-point home underdogs.
Stafford doesn't look fully healthy right now. Some of his sideline and downfield attempts lack his usual zip, and his throwing motion is feeling a little more Philip Rivers-like. I wasn't surprised to see Monday's report that his elbow is sore. That's what his throwing motion looks like right now, and the offense being extremely quick-hitting is further evidence of just that. Over the past month, Stafford's average depth of target is at just 5.4 yards downfield. The good news is the Rams have remained top-5 in neutral pass rate in the two games without Davante Adams. Stafford is a lower-ceiling QB2 right now. He is fantasy's QB16 this year on QB16 EPA per dropback.
He now faces a Washington defense allowing the third-most half PPR points per game to quarterbacks (22.0). Opposing passers have found plenty of success against the Commanders, who rank sixth in QB passing points allowed per game. Jameis Winston tagged them for 326 yards and three passing scores in Week 5, while Brock Purdy posted 17.4 fantasy points the following week with backups at WR. The Rams enter as 5.5-point road favorites with a 26.5-point implied team total (eighth).
Shough is off the bye and it's possible WR Jordyn Tyson makes his debut and LT Kelvin Banks (ankle) returns after a prolonged absence. Those would be major upgrades. Shough's been the QB7 in fantasy points per game but was exposed versus the Vikings and Steelers recently while dealing with a broken non-throwing hand. He should be largely over that now, and the added rushing element has made him a low-end QB1 at times in the fastest-paced offense:
Week 9 presents a much tighter test against Cleveland, as the Browns rank 26th in half PPR points allowed to opposing QBs (15.2 per game). They haven't been tested by above-average QBs this entire month, however, with Aaron Rodgers, Cam Ward, Tyler Huntley and Geno Smith in their recent history. The Browns play man coverage more than anyone else, but the Saints have the WRs to hang in there. New Orleans is listed as a 2.5-point home favorite with a 23-point team total (14th).
1. Brock Bowers (at SF) - 76.5 proj. yards
Bowers' 17.2 half PPR points per game are on flirting with the best of all time at the position. He's barely even a tight end in this Klint Kubiak offense, one that's experimenting at RB and OG because the ground game is so broken. He peaked just last week with a season-high 24.7 half PPR points on 21.0 expected points. That rarely happens. Same with his 40% target share.
I know the 49ers have LB Fred Warner roaming the middle, but the 10-point spread is going to lead to a hilarious amount of targets on the road here. This is a good matchup on game script alone.
2. George Kittle (vs. LV) - 68.5 proj. yards
We'll see if Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) or Mike Evans (Achilles) will play later in the week, but it doesn't sound like Deebo Samuel Sr. will be back. This past month with injuries at WR, Kittle has been the TE4 on TE5 usage, commanding a 29% share in each of the past two games with Evans in and out of the lineup.
San Francisco draws a Raiders defense giving up 14.8 half PPR points per game to tight ends, the fourth-most in the league. The 49ers are 9.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 31.25 points (first). Smash spot, duh.
3. Trey McBride (at SEA) - 59.5 proj. yards
The Cardinals no longer have the following skill players: Marvin Harrison Jr., Kendrick Bourne, Jalen Brooks, Reggie Virgil, Jeremiyah Love and Bam Knight. McBride was already the TE1 overall in usage, but his rare volume is further insulated. Gardner Minshew is known for his garbage-time dropbacks.
Of course, it's never a fun time against the Seahawks defense. They've allowed the fewest passing yards per game (169.1) and the fourth-fewest points to TEs. Colston Loveland (65 yards), Travis Kelce (44) and George Kittle (24) all had fairly quiet outings against them this month. McBride has battled against them recently, too. He was the TE9 on TE2 usage in Week 2, while finishing as the TE1, TE15, TE7 and TE2 in his other games against Mike Macdonald. A 14.75-point team total is scary for his touchdown odds, even if he'll likely see eight+ targets again.
4. Colston Loveland (vs. TB) - 50.5 proj. yards
Since Week 6, when Caleb Williams returned, Loveland is the TE3 on TE4 usage, largely competing with George Kittle for that No. 3 spot behind the true elites of Brock Bowers and Trey McBride.
5. Sam LaPorta (at MIA) - 43.5 proj. yards
6. Tyler Warren (vs. DAL) - 41.5 proj. yards
7. Isaiah Likely (at PHI) - 45.5 proj. yards
8. Harold Fannin Jr. (at NO) - 44.5 proj. yards
9. Tucker Kraft (at NE) - 45.5 proj. yards
10. Kyle Pitts Sr. (vs. CIN) - 41.5 proj. yards
11. T.J. Hockenson (vs. BUF) - 42.5 proj. yards
12. Dalton Kincaid (at MIN) - 44.5 proj. yards
13. Travis Kelce (vs. NYJ) - 45.5 proj. yards
14. Mike Gesicki (at ATL) - 26.5 proj. yards
15. Dallas Goedert (vs. NYG) - 39.5 proj. yards
I can't say Goedert is moving around well. That was a tough adjustment and drop that led to the interception over the middle in Week 8. He hasn't cleared 9.1 half PPR points since Week 1, and I wonder if his days on the Eagles are coming to an end given his expiring contract and the return of Eli Stowers. He's the TE18 on TE14 this month, despite not having DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks for most of it. A trade would be the only way Goedert gets back into the fantasy TE1 mix, and most of the contending teams have a nice starter.
The Giants rank 22nd in half PPR points allowed to tight ends, giving up 9.4 points per game to the position. New York has limited individual ceilings lately, surrendering a high of 8.0 half PPR points to Chig Okonkwo in Week 5 and 7.0 to Dalton Schultz in Week 7 across their last four outings. Philadelphia enters as 3.5-point home underdogs with an implied team total of 18 points (28th).
16. Greg Dulcich (vs. DET) - 37.5 proj. yards
17. Brenton Strange (at BAL) - 35.5 proj. yards
18. Dalton Schultz (at LAC) - 34.5 proj. yards
20. Chig Okonkwo (vs. LAR) - 30.5 proj. yards
Okonkwo had the best receiving game I've ever seen that resulted in 2.2 half PPR points. He was out of bounds on his one-handed catch in the corner. He had another one-handed grab up the seam that needed a monster push-off to work. His screen was a one-handed catch, too. He did catch-and-fumble a bang-bang play, however. What can you do? Since returning from injury, he's been the TE28 on TE21 usage. Last week's 8.3 expected half PPR points (TE11) were a season high. He has the receiving burst to randomly hit a spike while Terry McLaurin is off the field.
The Rams have been tough on opposing tight ends, ranking 26th in half PPR points allowed at 8.1 per game. Opponents facing Los Angeles have registered a neutral pass rate of just 47% (lowest rank three of 32 teams), limiting overall passing volume. Brock Bowers (6-73-0) and Trey McBride (7-53-0) managed reasonable reception totals against the Rams recently, but Los Angeles has surrendered only one touchdown to tight ends over its past four contests. Washington enters as 5.5-point home underdogs with an implied team total of 21.0 points (23rd).
23. Mason Taylor (at KC) - 21.5 proj. yards
24. Michael Mayer (at SF) - 32.5 proj. yards
25. AJ Barner (vs. ARI) - 23.5 proj. yards
26. Juwan Johnson (vs. CLE) - 27.5 proj. yards
27. Oronde Gadsden (vs. HOU) - 17.5 proj. yards
28. Darren Waller (vs. DEN) - 18.5 proj. yards
29. Mark Andrews (vs. JAX) - 18.5 proj. yards
30. Kenyon Sadiq (at KC) - 12.5 proj. yards
31. Tommy Tremble (vs. DEN) - 16.5 proj. yards
33. Cade Otton (at CHI) - 28.5 proj. yards
34. Noah Fant (vs. CLE) - 9.5 proj. yards
Source: Sports
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